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Update 2 on the Korean negotiations

 

Just as I think that I have the process and its linkages figured out the North Koreans throw a curve ball!  The cancellation of yesterday’s talks as a protest against US – South Korean previously planned military exercises may tell us some things about the process continuation.

The North’s official news agency said Pyongyang had called off high-level talks with Seoul. Citing first vice minister of foreign affairs the news agency  said the fate of the unprecedented U.S.-North Korea summit, as well as bilateral relations, “would be clear” if the United States spoke of a “Libya-style” denuclearization for the North.

“If the U.S. is trying to drive us into a corner to force our unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the DPRK-U.S. summit”.

There are several possible messages here:

  • There may be a power struggle between the hardliners and those in favor of denuclearization within the hierarchy of North Korea
  • We may be witnessing the traditional North Korean drive a hard bargain approach, which is not incompatible with the first observation
  • This may be a test of President Trump—how tough will he hang? Will he be willing to walk away?

Interestingly the dialogue with Secretary Pompeo by phone has continued.  This is most likely just another negotiating gambit.  However, the power struggle argument must be given serious consideration.  The North Korean military is first in the “chow line” when it comes to the government distributing what little bit of resources that it has.  If the military believes that this favored position will be threatened by denuclearization and the end of the “almost hostilities with the South and the US” then it may be trying to force a more belligerent and stronger position.  It wants its share of whatever good comes form the summit.

Only time will tell.

Update: The Korean negotiation process

Yesterday we published an analysis of the process leading to the meeting of President Trump and Kim Jung Un in Singapore on 12 June.  This is an update on that analysis.

The north and south are meeting today in Panmunjon to further refine the issues of economic cooperation between the two Koreas.

This is a further part of the process.  The process has two levels:

1.    The north south issues

2.    The denuclearization issues which is the US focus

Obviously the two levels of processes are interconnected and it will be impossible to work one process to a successful outcome without the other.  The economic vitalization of North Korea is dependent upon the relaxation of sanctions and economic embargoes which is in turn dependent a denuclearization agreement.

Given these dependencies one can imagine a direct linkage between steps in the two.  In other words, as certain steps are taken in denuclearization certain sanctions and embargoes will be relaxed.  These connected steps will be detailed and require significant negotiation.  /this suggests that the best one can hope for coming out of Singapore in 28 days is a broad agreement that sets the negotiation of the detailed linkages noted above.  The agreement will have both sides make good faith actions immediately to establish a maintainable momentum.

As the details emerge in the coming days this framework should become more evident.  Stay tuned.

The Korean negotiation process

In one of his walking out of a ceremony remarks President Trump mentioned that the process.  To date there has not been any press speculation about this process.  There has been speculation that the Iran nuclear deal cancellation has made the upcoming denuclearization negotiations more difficult.  This is contrary to the process.  The process has included a series signals (public and private) and actions. Several of these are:

  • Convincing the Chinese to tighten the screws on the North Koreans.  (It should be noted that Kim Jung Un has made 2 visits to China in recent months.)
  • The Winter Olympics north south cooperation and accompanying discussions
  • The recent north south summit in Panmunjom that included:
    • Movement towards a peace treaty
    • Opening of family reunions
    • The provision of a USB stick with an North Korean economic development plan on it
  • The Pompeo back channel discussion in North Korea
  • Discussions at the UN with Niki Haley
  • The cancellation of the Iran Nuclear Agreement signaled that a cosmetic do nothing agreement will not be tolerated.  This is necessary to define expectations and set the bar at a high level.
  • The recent release of the three detainees as part of Secretary of State Pompeo’s latest visit to coordinate the negotiation
  • The North Korean announcement that they will dismantle their nuclear testing facility and allow the media to visit it
  • The suggestion that the North Koreans provide 3 warheads to the French to have them dismantled
  • President Trump’s more positive remarks about Kim Jung Un, while stating hopes for success but simultaneously allowing the possibility for a lack of success with the blame for failure being pre-positioned as a North Korean failure
  • Secretary Pompeo’s remarks yesterday that US funds would not be used to rebuild North Korea, HOWEVER with a lack of sanctions private capital would flow into North Korea.  “He talked of the potential for U.S. investment in the North Asian nation from America’s “entrepreneurs, our risk takers, our capital providers” to help North Korea’s people “get the opportunity that they so richly deserve.”  Of course allowing such capital flow would be dependent upon proof of denuclearization.

So the process is ongoing providing the standards, some initial agreements, the removal of issues (the hostages) and the terms for whatever is to occur in Singapore next month.  This process started with the “Rocketman” rhetoric and the display of force.  Another key part of this process was convincing the Chinese to tighten the embargo on the North Koreans.

Watching this process unfold may provide a textbook approach to reaching critical, peaceful negotiated agreement.

Really?

Immediately after the President’s announcement that the US will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal the liberal fake analyst pundits announced that the decision would undermine the negotiations with the North Koreans.  This couldn’t be further from the truth.

In my recently published blog (the workup to the Korean Summit) I wrote: “The Trump Administration will most likely add into the Korean position its stand on Iran.  The Iranian agreement does not provide the example that the Trump Administration wants the North Koreans to think is in the realm of the possible.  It is sure to highlight the loopholes in the Iranian deal no matter how it decides to go forward.”

In other words the withdrawal will highlight to the North Koreans that they cannot get away with some fluffy document that has numerous loopholes and a lack of comprehensive verification of whatever is agreed to.

As the “we hate Trump pundits” look for something wrong with the withdrawal the North Koreans will have received several meaningful messages.  The most important is that they must agree to a comprehensive denuclearization or they too can be isolated like Iran.

What are your thoughts?

The workup to the Korean Summit

Six months ago the common wisdom was that the United States and North Korea were on a collision course to armed intervention by the US and response by the North Koreans.  Today as the Kim Jung Un and President Trump summit draws near there are some who are touting President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.  How did we get here?

Some analysts believe that the North Korean change in direction is not the result of weakness, as many would have you believe.  They argue that the North Koreans now perceive that they have demonstrated that they are valid members of the “nuclear club” and thus can come to a negotiating table in a position of strength.  They have demonstrated nuclear weapons and ICBM technology.  This capability can be redeployed in the future should an agreement fail. What is probably missing is reentry vehicle technology which is necessary to deliver a nuclear weapon.  This with the construction of a new test facility can be mastered– the North Korean nuclear underground test site is collapsing.

On the negative side there is no doubt that the sanctions have hurt the North Koreans—especially since the Chinese have cooperated, somewhat in those embargoes.  Given the nuclear standoff they have created there is no doubt that the North Koreans see an opportunity to greatly improve their economic situation.  The question on the table is whether they will be willing to trade denuclearization for economic growth?

The North Koreans have played the fear of conflict in South Korea to improve their position vis-à-vis the US.  The Olympic icebreaking followed by the recent Panmunjom north south summit with the announcement of the cessation of hostilities agreement was no doubt orchestrated to try and get the south to apply pressure, when/if needed to reach some form of agreement coming out of the upcoming meeting between Kim Jung Un and Donald Trump.  The visit of President Moon of South Korea to the White House in coming weeks is no doubt focused on having a unified position going into summit.

There are also plans on the economic partial integration of the two Koreas that the South Koreans have created to increase the incentive for s for the North to agree to nuclearization.  This is a two edged sword for the South Koreans.  The South Koreans should talk to the Germans about the huge costs that they bore with the German unification.

Both sides have continued to move in jerks toward the historic meeting.  The North has agreed to release 2 Americans being held in a labor camp so as to take that issue off of the table.  The President has announced that 28,000 US forces stationed in Korea are not on the table.  The North has complained of US rhetoric while promising to let experts and journalists visit the nuclear test site to verify its decommissioning.

Reaching an agreement on the denuclearization of North Korea will be a difficult negotiation.  It will be difficult process to agree on the terms and their implementation.  It is in this process that the Iranian nuclear deal sets a precedent.  The Trump Administration will most likely add into the Korean position its stand on Iran.  The Iranian agreement does not provide the example that the Trump Administration wants the North Koreans to think is in the realm of the possible.  It is sure to highlight the loopholes in the Iranian deal no matter how it decides to go forward.

No one should expect a detailed agreement to come out of the upcoming summit.  The best that could be hoped for is a broad agreement that:

  • Codifies the denuclearization of North Korea
  • Limits the development of ICBMs
  • Provides for future technical negotiations with periodic reports of status to principals either individually or at subsequent summits for approval and further guidance.
  • Links the relaxation of sanctions to progress on the limiting/eliminating of ICBMs and nuclear warheads.

Obviously verification protocols will be critical to the successful conclusion of this historic negotiation.

The upcoming summit is not an end in and of itself!  It is a meeting to define and agree to a process that may take a year or more to conclude.

Images into multi-domain conflict

The Russians and Chinese have been giving us glimpses into their future weapon’s systems and their utilization.  In considering these weapons utilization one can begin to see the ways that these two potential opponents envision fighting in future conflicts.  One should also note that present conflicts are being used as testing grounds for these futuristic weapon systems.

The Russians have used Syria as a proving ground for their cyber and robotic capabilities.  According to multiple Russian language blogs the Syrian Arab Army recently deployed ten Russian combat robots in a battle leading to about 70 rebel fighters and no Syrian casualties.  Allegedly these robots were controlled from a Russian command post. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f5iWM5rLTY)

The Russians have demonstrated these robots and touted them in press videos as those noted above.  Why? Most likely because the Russians are actually behind the American and Chinese in the development of robotic devices.

What is the motivation for robotic devices?  There are many.  In most cases robotic/remote controlled combat systems are cheaper to build and deploy since they are smaller and do not include the crew survival / protection measures and the associated weight and size that accompany crews.  Such machines of war require fewer human warriors on the battlefield and thus reduce the entire human support costs.

Electronic warfare has been used on the battlefield since World War II.  The commander of US forces in Syria recently reported that US AC130 gun ships were being jammed during support operations for the Syrian “rebels.” The electronic jamming signals affecting AC-130 gunships over Syria may have crews checking and cross-checking their data, including target information, before they lock on with their cannons, according to air commanders in Syria.

“Whether that’s being man-made, or maybe it’s a mistake inside the airplane, it’s hard to say sometimes, but the process is, as you see those things pop up, the safety for the people on the ground is the primary concern,” said Col. Tom Palenske, commander of the 1st Special Operations Wing…He continued: ““When you’re going to put lethal fires down on either enemy position or to protect friendlies, you’re concerned about the innocents around both our guys in uniform and civilians,” he said. “And when there’s some glitch being put out there by trons that threatens the accuracy of that, then the [AC-130 crews] have got to make sure they do no harm.”…Palenske did not say what kind of electronic warfare equipment adversaries are using, nor who the adversaries are, even though Islamic State fighters, Iranian-backed militia and Russian troops are in country.

Cyber warfare is coming and this is one of the first battlefield indications—the ability to take over a friendly fire control system.  Hacking has become common place across military and civil society.

What is not being reported is the ability to work through or counter such spoofing and other types of cyber activities. There is also no public discussion of friendly use of similar capabilities.

Finally, The Chinese are reported to be using weapons grade lasers to engage US planes over Djibouti where there is a Chinese military installation.  Currently the lasers are reported to be eye damaging.  However the ability to target and engage a military aircraft with a laser portends a capability to do more than create eye damage with lasers.  Future air defense weapons will most probably include radar directed lasers to destroy electronics and avionics in military aircraft.  Presently, the lasers are likely denying US access to selected regions

The Chinese are also reported to have deployed air defense, electronic warfare and surface to surface missiles on three of their man made islands in the area claimed by the Philippines.  These weapons threaten a significant amount of civilian naval traffic which could disrupt the economies of many of the nations in the area.

These new weapon deployments highlight the changing nature of warfare where new weapons can be used to achieve regional superiority for the accomplishment of a mission. This is the essence of the emerging US doctrine of cross domain operations..   (https://brucebgclarke.com/2017/07/12/multi-domain-warfare/)

If I were the devil

Many of my progressive friends have been castigating me recently for my conservative views.  As a strategist I recently reread Paul Harvey’s remarks from 1965.  I am posting them so that my progressive friends can give careful thought as to where we might be headed in their vision.

In 1965, Paul Harvey broadcasted “If I Were the Devil.” It is really amazing to realize over 53 years ago how accurately he “prophesied” the future spiritual condition of the United States. Many of his statements were considered ridiculously outlandish at that time in history. Yet, we find ourselves today…

.Paul Harvey’s “If I Were the Devil” Transcript from 1965

by Paul Harvey

If I were the devil … If I were the Prince of Darkness, I’d want to engulf the whole world in darkness. And I’d have a third of its real estate, and four-fifths of its population, but I wouldn’t be happy until I had seized the ripest apple on the tree — Thee.  So I’d set about however necessary to take over the United States. I’d subvert the churches first — I’d begin with a campaign of whispers. With the wisdom of a serpent, I would whisper to you as I whispered to Eve: ‘Do as you please.’

“To the young, I would whisper that ‘The Bible is a myth.’ I would convince them that man created God instead of the other way around. I would confide that what’s bad is good, and what’s good is ‘square.’ And the old, I would teach to pray, after me, ‘Our Father, which art in Washington…’

“And then I’d get organized. I’d educate authors in how to make lurid literature exciting, so that anything else would appear dull and uninteresting. I’d threaten TV with dirtier movies and vice versa. I’d pedal narcotics to whom I could. I’d sell alcohol to ladies and gentlemen of distinction. I’d tranquilize the rest with pills.

“If I were the devil I’d soon have families that war with themselves, churches at war with themselves, and nations at war with themselves; until each in its turn was consumed. And with promises of higher ratings I’d have mesmerizing media fanning the flames. If I were the devil I would encourage schools to refine young intellects, but neglect to discipline emotions — just let those run wild, until before you knew it, you’d have to have drug sniffing dogs and metal detectors at every schoolhouse door.

“Within a decade I’d have prisons overflowing, I’d have judges promoting pornography — soon I could evict God from the courthouse, then from the schoolhouse, and then from the houses of Congress. And in His own churches I would substitute psychology for religion, and deify science. I would lure priests and pastors into misusing boys and girls, and church money. If I were the devil I’d make the symbols of Easter an egg and the symbol of Christmas a bottle.

“If I were the devil I’d take from those who have, and give to those who want until I had killed the incentive of the ambitious.

And what do you bet I could get whole states to promote gambling as the way to get rich? I would caution against extremes and hard work in Patriotism, in moral conduct. I would convince the young that marriage is old-fashioned, that swinging is more fun, that what you see on the TV is the way to be. And thus, I could undress you in public, and I could lure you into bed with diseases for which there is no cure. In other words, if I were the devil I’d just keep right on doing what he’s doing.

Paul Harvey, good day.”