At the macro strategic level nothing has really changed.  The battlefield dynamics have changed with Ukraine’s invasion of Russia near Kursk and Russian advances near Pokrovak.

The real issue is that neither side has found a way to terminate the conflict.  The Russians failed to size Kyiv at the beginning of their invasion and since then the conflict has become a war of attrition.  Both sides are seeking termination by exhausting the other.  In such a conflict Russia has the advantage in national manpower and strategic stockpiles.  However, Ukraine has the advantage with better fighting skills, especially at the tactical and operational levels.  Both sides are heavily dependent on “allies”.  Russia on China and North Korea and Ukraine on the NATO members.  The Russian’s allies are supporting it for payment and closer ties.  The NATO allies are supporting Ukraine as a way of preventing Russia form attacking the alliance—especially the recently joined Baltic states.

So how does an attrition war end?  One side or the other says it has had enough and withdrawing from the battlefield.  This is easier for the Russians to do than the Ukrainians. At the worst the Russian would lose Crimea and much more importantly “face”.  It would be difficult to claim to be a “world power” except because of its nuclear arsenal.  For Ukraine the withdrawal from the conflict would be catastrophic as it would amount to the loss of its political freedom.   As long as allied support continues and neither side wins a strategic victory one the battlefield the blood letting will continue.

The Ukrainian attack into Russia has slightly altered the equation as the political and actual losses have been increased several fold.  Ukraine’s ability to attack military and economic infrastructure targets in Russia has increased as a result of the increased proximity to targets.  This ability to cause more damage and thus up the  cost to Russia is potentially a dramatic factor in the conflict/  Had Ukraine been able to conduct a blitzkrieg like battle and roll up the attacking forces elsewhere on the battlefield could have resulted in a battlefield victory.  But Ukraine did not have the forces to encircle the forces opposing it elsewhere on the battlefield.

Similarly the Russian advances towards Pokroyak have created a significant penetration into Ukraine.  However, Ukraine has held the shoulders of the penetration creating an offensive opportunity that reminds one of the famous battle of Kursk during World War II when the Soviets held the shoulders and limited the depth of a German attempt to penetrate the Soviet lines and then counter attacked to destroy a large German formation and forced a German withdrawal which signaled the beginning of the end of the war on the Eastern Front.  One has to seriously doubt that Ukraine has husbanded the necessary assets to conduct the pincer-like attacks to seal the penetration and deal a disastrous loss to Russian forces.

As we consider the chess board that is the Ukrainian battlefield one must wonder if there is a battlefield solution to the war?  (It is critical to note that the use of nuclear weapons by the Russians has not been considered in this whole discussion.  Such use would change the entire dynamic of this conflict and must be dealt with in a subsequent effort,) At this writing the offensive actions of both sides do not provide a change of the strategic nature of the war.  It remains a war of attrition.  Th only way it will temporarily end is some form on negotiated ceasefire.  The term temporarily is used intentionally because the end of this conflict will only be the beginning of the next one.

New news:  The Russian attack on Pokrovak appears to be advancing and the defenses are not likely to hold.  Simultaneously the Ukrainians are expanding the seized terrain near Kursk.  The Russians just launched a large-scale drone and missile attack killing at least 40 at a Ukrainian military school.  Most certainly Ukraine will respond.  Finally, it is reported ed Zelenskyy is travelling to the US with a new proposal to end the conflict.  To guess what the proposal is difficult, but a personal guess is that he is going to ask the Biden administration to remove the limits on attacking Russian soil with US weapons.  That may be coupled with a request for longer range missiles that would put Moscow at risk.  Such a threat would provide leverage to negotiate a ceasefire followed by subsequent negotiations.  We’ll see.