Since writing the first piece on the Hamas strategy in its war of atrocities on Israel the picture has become much clearer.  The strategic goal of Hamas, based on their constitution is the destruction of Israel.  That goal has not changed!  What has changed is the methodologies of achieving that goal. The means used to achieve their goal include propaganda, rockets and terrorist activities.  The “Rules of War” do not apply.

Hamas (and Hezbollah?) continue to be Iranian proxies.  Iran has the elimination of Israel also as a goal, but probably for different reasons.  Iran seeks to dominate the middle-east.  To do that it must eliminate Israel.  After reducing the American threat by pretending that it would enter into an agreement to not produce nuclear weapons the US in exchange for 5 hostages released $6B.  (The call to refreeze those funds has so far fallen on deaf ears at the White House.)   The next step was to continue the antisemitic sentiments that had been fostered throughout the world using Muslim refugees and other pro-Arab thoughts in universities and colleges around the world funded by mostly Saudi money.  (Funny that the Sunni funds have been exploited by the Shiites.)  The Iranians also had to destroy or at least delay the approaching rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.  They knew that the Saudis could not side with Israel against the Palestinians.  This knowledge led to the current strategy of atrocities and hostages waged against the Israelis. The differences between the Sunni and Shia Muslims are hidden in the current propaganda war.

The hostages are a key component to the execution of the strategy.  Israel cannot attack the Hamas tunnel complexes using salt water to flood them as it has in the past because the tunnel might have hostages in it.  This has contributed to the lack of speed in the Israeli invasion of Gaza.  They are seeking to figure out where the hostages may be in order to attempt to minimize their vulnerability during the upcoming assault.

Tunnel warfare is dirty and dark work.  The easiest way to attack a tunnel is to flood it or fill it with some form of gas that either explodes, incapacitates or kills the tunnel occupants.  Ultimately the tunnels need to be destroyed.

The threats to open second and third fronts against Israel—Hezbollah on the north and Iran through Syria on the east are just threats to tie down Israeli forces and make the agony of Palestine continue to play in the media over a longer period of time.  Israel’s need to station troops to deal with those possible attacks means that those assets are not available to attack Gaza.  This agony it is hoped will further isolate Israel.  It almost appears that the pro-Palestinian factions around the world were expecting the hospital attack—the counter Israel demonstrations broke out so soon after the initial false claims by Hamas’s propaganda arm. Examination of the attack area and radar and video recordings prove that the missile was fired by Hamas.  The final number of casualties may be small, though quite a few cars next to the hospital were destroyed—burned not exploded.  But the propaganda value has been achieved.  Was it intentional?

The hospital attack also served to break up President Biden’s attempt to be a peacemaker by meeting in Jordan with three political heads of state.  The termination of this meeting may have contributed to the President’s stated goal of giving $100M to the Palestinian recovery fund.  This may be hard to get out of the Congress right now.

As this conflict continues to fester strategic goals and objectives may change with the tactical realities, but in the long run Iran will continue to seek dominance in the region and Israel will continue to seek to survive and prosper.

What is not known and may become the hugest sore for Israel is post-war Gaza.  Israel will not want to permanently occupy Gaza for a whole host of reasons–cost, providing targets for continuing terrorist attacks, the difficulty inherent in ruling a hostile area, etc.  To date there has been little discussion of what the region will look like in a post conflict world.  This should be a subject that is keeping Israeli strategists worrying once they can refocus away from the continual propaganda that flies at them every second of every day.  Food distribution and rebuilding requires a government in Gaza and it is hard to imagine that Israel wants that mission.

This series will continue as events dictate further explanations and revisions to the strategic environment.