The Wagner Group has operated as what is portrayed as an independent arm of Russia for many years.  It is the independent nature of the Group’s activities that in some cases given Putting and Russia an ability to claim that it is not involved.  A marginal argument, at best, but an argument. 

What is the Wagner Group and the source of its power?

Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian Spetznatz Lieutenant Colonel, and financier Yevgeny Prigozhin started the Wagner Group, around 2014, toward the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the Crimean Peninsula.

For years, it has been shrouded in secrecy, then infamy, and after the recent 48 hours of confusion and claims of a “rebellion” in Russia, questions about the notorious Wagner Group and the intentions of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin are the focus of some investigation and some estimated guessing.

The Wagner Group is a private military organization run by an ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin with tens of thousands of fighters. It has operated in Syria and in various African countries. Earlier this year, the US labeled the group a “significant transnational criminal organization” and levied new sanctions against its senior leadership and Russia. Human rights observers have said they suspect Wagner fighters were linked to the mass killing of people in Mali last year.

There are an estimated 50,000 fighters from the Wagner Group in Ukraine. Around 40,000 of the fighters are believed to be convicts, which could lead to more allegations of human rights abuses. Such mercenaries are technically illegal under Russian law and it has long avoided discussing the use of such fighters.

It is reported to have exploited the natural resources of vulnerable nations in order for the group deal with financial punishments like the US sanctions. However, it is impossible to imagine that the group has mined enough illegal gold to offset its expenditures and paying its former convict warriors.

The Wagner group’s defensive operations in the Ukraine have marked it as one of the best Russian military units.  The current rebellion (more on that in subsequent paragraphs) has given the Ukrainian counterattack more promise, though it is difficult to imagine that its loss to the Russian formations will be of such magnitude as to create a significant opportunity for Ukraine.  The Russians are fighting a World War 1 type of defense.  One that is characterized by significant obstacles and trench lines, which must be breached in depth.

The Wagner Putsch

During the offensive and defensive operations around Bakhmut the Wagner Group bore the brunt of the fighting.  During this fighting the complaints from the group were frequent and loud about how it was being denied ammunition and other forms of support. The claim was that the Russian military was getting the priority of support while the group was doing most of the fighting.

Following the end of the battles for Bakhmut the group was pulled out of the fight to enable it to rearm and refit.  The claim is that it was at this point that allegedly the Russians attacked several group positions with artillery. Such attacks caused the Group’s head Yevgeny Prigozhin to become quite vocal.  His verbal attacks lead Vladimir Putin to brand him as a traitor and to call for his arrest. On Friday evening, Prigozhin sent out an audio message warning of an armed rebellion against Russia’s military leadership after accusing it of deliberately shelling his forces. He claimed his forces would punish Russia’s defense minister and chief of general staff, telling other units to stand down and not offer resistance. “There are 25,000 of us and we are coming to sort things out. … Those who want to join us, it’s time to finish with this mess,” Prigozhin said.

He also published a video on Friday that showed a shattered group of trees and a burning trench, claiming it was a Wagner camp shelled by Russian troops and alleging many Wagner troops were killed.

This sparked what some have called a putsch or a rebellion.  In either case the Wagner Group seized two towns and the military headquarters controlling actions in Ukraine.  The Wagner Group column was attacked by Russian attack helicopters and a Brigade was activated to defend Moscow.

The Belarus President was able to broker a ceasefire and Putin dropped the treason charges against Prigozhin.  In an attempt to disband the Wagner Group Putin gave its members three choices:

1. Join the Russian Army
2. Go home
3. Stay with the Wagner Group

Reportedly, Belarus is building a camp to house the 8-10000 warriors who will follow Prigozhin into exile.

What will come next is uncertain, but some estimates / guestimates are possible:

1. The loss of the Wagner Group will not significantly impact Russia’s ability to continue the fight in Ukraine.
2. Putin was not overthrown, but there is no doubt that he feels that others will think that he is weakened.  This may cause him to tighten the noose on those who would challenge him for power.  Conversely, others may be emboldened to threaten or take some form of action against Putin.  The possibility of some turbulence in Moscow is therefore likely.
3. Given Moscow’s reliance on the Wagner Group to support its actions in Syria and parts of Africa the Group will continue, though probably with lessened financial support from Moscow.  This will cause it to go “looking” for fund sources, which could be destabilizing.
4. In addition to the Belarus President’s intervention, it is the above foreign entanglements that are probably keeping Prigozhin alive.  How long will this last?

The Putsch is over and the Wagner Group is being disarmed, except for personal weapons.  The threat of it leading another armed “rebellion” is small but this is not to say that another frustrated group may emerge.  We can only watch and wait.