Why War?

Nation’s have traditionally tried to make other nations change their political objectives through many means:

• Political
• Economic
• Social-Psychological
• Military
• Netwar / Cyber

What will change now that we are in the 21st Century?

• Weapons will be more sophisticated, and maybe less plentiful for the haves
• Weapons will proliferate but be less sophisticated for the have nots
• The nation states may not be the only warriors
  • Changing objectives of those not empowered to do so may be more difficult–Leaders may not have decisive authority
  • Rational will be irrational
• Socio-Psychological means will be more important
  • Will blur in information warfare
• Asymmetries will increase

Asymmetries

• No one can challenge the US in late 20th Century forms of warfare
• Enemies will therefore seek asymmetric approaches
  • Low tech mass vice high tech limited quantity
  • Psychological
  • New rules
  • Reduce vulnerability to sophisticated weapons
  • Netwar / Cyber

Asymmetry

• Warfare will be characterized by asymmetries
  • Tactical–complex terrain, use of non-combatants, different rules of behavior
  • Operational–Deep strikes, target detection vice deception
  • Strategic
• Military–homeland attacks–target detection vice deception
• Political–Preparation of the body politic
• Multi-domain—gain local /temporary advantage by exploiting cyber, fires, maneuver, etc. for limited time or location

Modes of Warfare

• Hands-on
• Standoff
• Netwar / Cyber

Some mix of each will be the norm rather than the exception—multi-domain

Hands on War

• Opponent states or independent organizations
• Antagonists may be:
  • Passionate
  • Less technologically sophisticated
  • Less vulnerable to technology
• Fought on complex physical and psychological terrain

Hands on War

• Characterized by large numbers of refugees and non-combatants
• Complex terrain–urban sprawl
• Antagonists have different cultural values
  • What will they be willing lose–what is center of gravity?
  • Different decision process
• Unattractive to Americans–therefore to be expected

Standoff War

• State against state
• Obvious objectives
• A set of rules
• Rational actors
• Decisive authority present
• Superior technology may be key
• More robotic forces employed from afar
• Deception and defense take on added importance
• May go directly to strategic targets
• Different calculus to determine the center of gravity
• Space and information tools more important

Netwar / Cyber Warfare

• Cyberspace is the battlefield–is the opponent vulnerable–are we?
• Much more subtle psychological and infrastructure focus
• When is competition war?
• Where does national security begin and law enforcement end?
• Characterized by extreme ambiguity and opponent identification problems
• Time compressed

The Challenge

• Designing a military to operate in such ambiguity will be difficult
• Developing the warrior spirit for netwar/cyber

Developing doctrine and resultant agility and flexibility to conduct multi-domain operations

• What are the new “rules of war”?