I asked my former student at West Point David Petraues (USMA 1974) for his thoughts on my original article.  They and my thoughts are capture below

• “Russia is not engaging in mass infantry attacks anymore; rather, they infiltrate with very small numbers.  But they do it a lot and thus sustain over 30K wounded and killed per month.
  • The basic premise of the article on casualties is correct even though the Russian tactics may have appeared to have changed.  A large number of infiltrations may be tantamount to dispersed massed forces if their infiltration is synchronized.
• “Ukraine now is superior in the strategic, as well as tactical and operational realms.  They are going to bring the Russian economy to its knees, isolate Crimea and turning off the power there, and also not only cause more frontline casualties, but also isolate the frontlines by attacking the logistical support elements.”
  • No basic differences except possibly in degree
• “Ukraine will produce at least 8 million drones this year of all types; no Russian ships can survive in the Sea of Azov or much of the Black Sea now.  And the Ukrainians are already on the threshold of autonomous drones.  That will enable swarms, for which there is no adequate defense.  So Russia is in increasing trouble, and Ukraine can absorb what Russia is sending much better than Russia can absorb what Ukraine is sending. Given all that, Russia will have to seek a cease fire.”
  • The Russians are currently trying to look strong with their missile and drone attacks on Kyiv.  But estimates are they are using missiles faster than they can produce them.
  • A cease fire can have two endings—some form of final peace agreement or a renewal of hostilities as the weaker party has used the cease fire to rearm and then recommence hostilities.
  • But where does a cease fire potentially go?  In the end the sought peace can only result from the degradation or elimination of the Russian leadership. The dilemma is that a degraded opponent may not have the power to end what it started given internal pressures, as mentioned in the article. The same is potentially true for an overthrown government. The conclusion to hostilities must be found somewhere in between.

The above provides items to watch.