Biden announced this intention in remarks on diplomacy to State Department employees last Thursday afternoon.  He made the following points:

• “We must meet the new moment — accelerating global challenges — from the pandemic to the climate crisis to nuclear proliferation — challenging the will only to be solved by nations working together and in common.” “We can’t do it alone.”
• He continued: “That must be this — we must start with diplomacy rooted in America’s most cherished democratic values: defending freedom, championing opportunity, upholding universal rights, respecting the rule of law, and treating every person with dignity. That’s the grounding wire of our global policy — our global power. That’s our inexhaustible source of strength. That’s America’s abiding advantage.”
• In another part of his speech, he spoke about “rebuilding” America’s relationship with “many of our closest allies,” including Canada, Mexico, the UK, Germany, France, NATO, Japan, South Korea and Australia.
• The president claimed that Trump hurt these alliances with policies of “neglect” and “abuse.”
• He also spoke about the approach his administration will take with some of America’s enemies, including Russia and China.  “I made it clear to President Putin in a manner very different from my predecessor that the days of the United States rolling over in the face of Russia’s aggressive actions interfering with our elections, cyberattacks, poisoning its citizens are over,” he said.
• However, he took a more vague, non-confrontational approach toward China, simply saying, “We’ll confront China’s economic abuses, counter its aggressive coercive action to push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.”

The words sound lofty and reasonable, but when you look behind them, they take a completely different meaning.  The globalism focus means involvement in issues in other countries that we might better stay out of.  The implication is that the US will support democracies around the world, but to many countries that are struggling with governance that support is seen as being the target of US muscle—the US will impose democracy–its form of democracy.  The US is going to do what about Russia poisoning its citizens—launch nucs?

The world is a more complex place than it was when Obama tried a globalist approach 12 years ago.

• China has emerged as a global threat if not militarily, economically.  It is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and the straits of Taiwan.
• Russia wants to be super power again and is building/rebuilding its nuclear arsenal and meddling in places it shouldn’t.
• US superiority is no longer appreciated in places that don’t want the US meddling in their affairs.
• Climate change concerns are truly only a US issue, but it will be used by the US to cause structural changes both domestically and internationally.

The push to democratize the world and pursue climate change will have an adverse impact on the status of non-violent change.  A quote from the Pakistani Tribune reflects many international views.

“The kind of democracy the US likes to install around the world is a code word for furthering US interests. Respecting alliances in the real world means a smooth path for the sale of war machinery and a combined pressure on whichever nation decides to look out for its own interests. Amid all this rhetoric, there is something getting ritualistically confused. They are getting things backwards. The self-congratulatory rhetoric goes that democracy would now grow around the world with an interventionist America under Biden.”

Note the concern with intervention.  Many analysts equate globalism with intervention and armed conflict.  The use of military force to enforce climate or governmental change becomes prevalent.  This trend occurs just as the commander of the US Strategic Command, Vice Admiral Richard has warned that: “There is a real possibility that a regional crisis with either China or Russia could escalate quickly to a conflict involving nuclear weapons, if they perceived a conventional loss would threaten the regime or state.”  He went on to argue that the US must prepare to meet such an eventuality. 

If one ties Biden’s globalism with the STRATCOM commander’s concerns it is clear that now is not necessarily the correct time to be rushing into a globalist foreign policy that failed under Obama with more military engagement than under Trump.  Trump’s speak softly but carry a big stick ala Teddy Roosevelt reduced conflict in the world and disengaged US forces around the globe.  Service men and women wish that such a condition would continue.

Not mentioned in his speech but a clear part of Biden’s agenda is to open the US borders so that foreigners can cross easily.  Ultimately the Democrats hope to increase their voter base with this cheap labor.  A whole article needs to be devoted to the immigration issue, but for our purposes here suffice it to say that US citizens will lose jobs and Charles Koch can get cheap labor. Also not mentioned but there seems to be some effort to undo some of what Trump accomplished in the middle-east. Again a subject for another article.

The last five years have seen a distinctive and worrisome change to our political process.  There have been new and more dangerous weapons added to our political process.  To those who hated Trump and anything related to Trump the ends of ousting Trump and then “killing off” his supporters make sense.  Many of those who support these new weapons are new to the political dialogue and to them the ends justify the means.  However, the leaders who are employing these weapons, don’t seem to care about the impact of their actions on our democracy.  This is truly worrisome.  Let me elaborate.

Impeachment.  As we all know President Trump was impeached based on a phone call.  Then the Democratic floor leaders added any other accusation into their rhetoric that they could think of to further smear this sitting president.  Now, even after he is out of office the Democrats want to impeach him again in the hope that they can prevent him from running again in 2024.  The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, when he announced that he would not preside over such a circus, was sending a clear signal that he did not believe that such an event was constitutional.  This hasn’t deterred the Democrats at all.  One cannot be sure whether it is Trump Derangement Syndrome or fear of another Trump campaign that motivates the Democrats—it is probably some of both.  The issue is that they have taken a constitutional procedure and weaponized it.  When all else failed to prevent President Trump from fulfilling his campaign promises they went for the ultimate weapon—impeachment.

This weaponization sets a terrible precedent that could upset our political process going forward.  Past Presidents must now be concerned that they can be impeached after they are out of office.  Will the Republicans impeach President Obama for Russia gate?  Will President Biden be impeached for his son’s financial dealings and his lies about them?  We can’t answer these questions but we can see how this one precedent could upset our political process for years to come.  Presidents could be afraid to do what is right for fear of a vindictive speaker of the house.  The power of intimidation by impeachment threat—that is a new and dangerous weapon.

Tyranny of the majority. The second example of the tyranny of the majority is all of the discussion of removing committee assignments from a member of the House because of her recommendation that President Biden be impeached.  It is a member’s party not the other party that decides a members committee assignment. What is even scarier about this is the used the process to skim off some Republicans, thus further dividing a party that really needs to learn to hang tough. However, now the Democratic majority has removed a member’s assignments by simple voting them off.  Relatedly, the Senate Ethics Committee looking at Senators Cruz and Hawley for challenging the election results is another example of trying to deter future challenges of the majority’s positions by members of the minority.  Again, the goal is power—the power to intimidate.

One must wonder what will happen in 2022 if the Republicans gain control of one or both houses of Congress.  The Democrats know that the Republicans are not as vicious as they are so maybe they don’t have any concerns about precedents.  Maybe we will get to find out.

Finally, another intimidation weapon is the denial of freedom of speech.  Between the Democrats in Congress, the White House and the bureaucracies there is an active effort to deny people the freedom to speak their minds on a subject if it runs counter to what the majority wants the people to hear and maybe understand.  This silencing through the power of big tech and the media is another threat to our political process.  We will address it next.

I held back my views during the election season and the post-election squabbles, but now that the new President is acting like the dictator that he claimed President Trump was something needs to be said.

The plethora of Executive Orders are designed to do two things:

1. Eliminate anything and everything that might be have been Trump related, and
2. Present the image that there is a lot being done.

Let me just provide a couple of examples.  One of the first Executive Orders stopped work on the Keystone Pipeline.  Of course, this was advertised as helping the environment because now oil would be more expensive and the cost of gas would go up and thus people would drive less—the standard Obama justification for such actions.  However, the actual effect was to put 11,000 workers out of work just at the time the economy was still trying to recover from the effects of COVID-19. The effect also was to ensure future revenue for hauling the oil by rail for Berkshire Hathaway’s railroad—Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF).  Warren Buffet who founded Berkshire Hathaway has been a large donor to Democratic party causes.  Hmmmm…..

Related to the pipeline order is our relationship to Saudi Arabia.  The status of the Houthi rebels in Yemen was changed—they are no longer a terrorist group.  And $500 million in arms sales to the Saudis is being reconsidered.  Cut their arms and increase their oil revenue once the US is no longer energy independent.  Is this really going to be our policy?  All in the name of the environment.

The Saudi linkage goes on as the attempt to re-establish relations with Iran and the Palestinians flies directly in the face of the Trump Abraham initiative that has several Arab states recognizing and normalizing relations with Israel.

This one example shows the lack of analysis of internal linkages and relationship to other orders and the resulting causes and effects.  Additionally, some of the rhetoric about what the now out of work pipeline workers can do was not very politically adept: “they can make solar panels.”

The second example is the removal of the Trump administration ban on the use of foreign aid monies to pay for abortions.  Being pro abortion as a policy position is an open choice, but why at the beginning of one’s term as president does he have to anger the Catholic church and over half of the national population who are against abortion.  And then the optics of sending money abroad for abortions while the Democrats can’t get a COVID relief bill through Congress are not what a good Democrat would want.  But of course, it is a Trump policy to reverse and thus it had to be done immediately.

As these Executive Orders continue and the Congress wastes its time on an unconstitutional impeachment the Biden Administration is digging itself into a position that many pundits suggest will cost them both the Senate and the House in 2022.  What will they do then?  Will a Republican House impeach Obama, or Biden or Harris or all three?  What about Jimmy Carter?  Of course, I jest but the precedence is not one they should set—but of course who would think of linkages and consequences?

More to follow in coming weeks.

Now that it appears that Joe Biden will become president on 20 January those that favor military deployments all over the world are starting to remerge after having been beaten down by President Trump.

In order to highlight their argument, I am re-posting an article that I received from PresidentialInsider.com.

“Withdrawing into a defensive and insular crouch here at home risks leaving Americans more isolated and more vulnerable to threats,” Panetta wrote. “More than ever, Americans must go abroad to remain secure at home.”

Hear that? More foreign wars.

And you can bet that Biden is listening if he becomes president in January.

The various essays in the report explore lots of different overseas conflicts and give arguments for why more American blood should be shed overseas.

Col. Maxwell, a former Special Forces officer, criticized the president’s commitment to bringing American soldiers home.

“Over the last couple of years there’s been a real discussion about pulling back U.S. forces. President Trump has always talked about withdrawing U.S. troops,” Maxwell lamented. “The original intent (of the report) is to show the value of our forward-stationed forces and the strategic flexibility they provide us.”

Retired Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former National Security Advisor to President Trump, also said that there would only be “Paltry savings” to bringing Americans home and that they would be “dwarfed by the eventual cost of responding to unchecked and undeterred threats to American security, prosperity and influence.”

Does it sound like these people really have America’s best interests at heart?

The article highlights the two arguments for deploying troops abroad:

1. We should fight whatever enemies we might have on foreign soil so that we don’t have to fight them at home.  In this regard allies and other foreign countries that are friendly with the United States cannot be trusted to deal with threats using their resources.
2. Foreign deployments position troops closer to potential future battlegrounds making deployments easier to accomplish in less time and using fewer resources.  The example that is used is the deployment of the US V Corps from Germany to Iraq in 1990. 

Both arguments in a cold war like environment tend to make some sense.  However, there are some concerns that need to be addressed:

1. Having troops stationed in the US with equipment foreign deployed for the troops to deploy and fall in on facilitates deployment of Rapid response forces.  V Corps Headquarters was just reactivated in Europe to be the tactical headquarters for troops being deployed from the US.  Equipment has been prepositioned for an Armored Brigade Combat Team (BCT) with more to follow.
2. Every six to 8 months a BCT is deployed to both Eastern Europe and Korea and the ones there are returned to home stationed.  These deployment show US commitment to the respective areas and also keep the troops trained on deployment skills.
3. Some of the troops being deployed from Germany are not coming back to the US be are moving from Germany into Eastern Europe.
4. The argument is that troops in Eastern Europe provide a better deterrent against the Russian than if they were in Germany,
5. There is already a “ready” BCT in Kuwait and equipment prepositioned on Diego Garcia.

The overall goal of current deployments is to increase flexibility while reducing the US overseas footprint and thus the number of targets deployed overseas.

The redeployment of troops will be one of the indicators of the extent of the return to globalism with the new administration.

The sides are quickly being drawn as a result of the rapprochement agreements between Bahrain and the UAE with Israel that we addressed several days ago. This piece will quickly summarize the responses.

Reports, as suggested in our las article continue to swirl around about the Saudis reaching a similar agreement soon. It is also reported that 6 other Arab states are in the wings to make similar agreements.

Conversely:

• Angered by the move, the Palestinian Authority recalled its ambassador to the UAE and said that it was going to withdraw from the Arab League, which refused to condemn the agreements. It expressed a feeling of betrayal
• Hamas called the agreement a “treacherous stab in the back of the Palestinian people, There were also 3 missiles fired into Israel and a minimal Israeli responses.
• Iran and Turkey resoundingly condemned the normalization of ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
• Iran called the deal a “dagger in the back” of all Muslims,
• Tehran also said the deal was an act of “strategic stupidity” by the UAE, and “will undoubtedly strengthen the axis of resistance in the region.”
• The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement supporting the Palestinian administration, saying that the “history and the conscience” of the region’s people will not forget and never forgive the “hypocritical behavior” of the United Arab Emirates in agreeing to a deal with Israel.
• Qatar sided with the Palestinian Authority

The lines are becoming much more tightly defined. The GCC states minus Qatar, but plus Jordan, Egypt and others supporting the rapprochements and Turkey, Iran and Qatar opposing the agreements.  Turkey continues its quest for leadership in the Arab nations.  Iran rightfully perceives that it is being further isolated as does the Palestinian Authority.  Qatar is in a box.  It wants to support the Palestinians and some radical Arab causes while avoiding a confrontation with Iran.  But it is geographically compromised in the region.[i]

As predicted the Palestinian Authority is becoming isolated and the pressure to reach agreement with Israel has increased significantly.  What is surprising is how fast the lines became drawn. 

Whether these agreements will have an impact on the upcoming presidential election is still unknown

[i] It should be noted that Qatar’s new Patriot air defense system has one battery oriented toward Iran and the second toward Saudi Arabia.

A recent Democratic set of talking points created the headline:”How can there be peace when there is no war?” The headline was focused on the Trump administration’s brokering of recognition agreements between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain and Israel.  The speculation in some media is that Saudi Arabia will be the next Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) state to recognize Israel and enter into economic relations with Israel.  Unfortunately these moves have received little publicity and almost no strategic analysis.  The purpose of this article is to put a little meat on the skeleton of a strategy that is emerging.

The strategy has a lot of moving parts.  It is designed to stabilize relations in the middle-east, isolate Iran and allow for reduced defense expenditures caused by overseas deployments.  Let’s look at each piece.

Stabilization of relations means creating a coalition against Iran and solving the Palestinian issue.  With the Arab states normalizing relations with Israel the Palestinians are much more politically isolated.  Their blatant support by the other Arab states will have been reduced and they will be more dependent upon a more isolated Iran with domestic unrest and an economy that is collapsing given a loss of petro dollars.  This isolation should convince the Palestinians that they should make a deal with Israel and end their state of belligerency. 

The process of normalization with the GCC states will most likely result in all of the GCC states, except possibly Qatar, recognizing Israel and normalizing relations with it.  Qatar is isolated presently from the GCC because of its support for terrorists and other issues with the Saudis.

This normalization will create a much tighter coalition against Iran and facilitate the ability to attack Iran should that become necessary to stop the development of nuclear weapons.  With overflight and refueling support from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait it will be much easier for Israeli aircraft to reach Iran or standoff range for selective air to surface munitions to strike Iran.  This can all be accomplished with at least defensive support from the GCC states so that the Israeli aircraft are operating at least partially under the air and missile defense umbrella of the Saudis et al.

This offensive capability coupled with the ongoing economic sanctions and political unrest could easily create the conditions for a revolution within Iran and at least a reduction in support for Hamas and Hezbollah.  This of course also adds pressure on the Palestinians.  In short the synergy created by all of these peaceful changes in the middle-east provide both the framework and the impetus for the resolution of many of the sores that are open in that area.

This indirect approach to creating leverage against the Palestinians stands a great chance in succeeding in solving the Palestinian issue.

With the lessening of the bellicose situation, the US will be free to continue / finalize its redeployments from the region.  Maintaining these forces at home is cheaper than if they are overseas.  Taking them out of the force structure is the cheapest of all.  This introduces what may be the Trump plan to reduce defense expenditure in his second term, while not reducing capabilities.  This will be the subject of a later article.

June 14th is the 255th birthday of the US Army.  The Army that I and most of my classmates served in.  The Army that my father served in and many of the veterans of many wars served in.

I am providing a musical tribute to that Army as performed by the West Point Alumni Glee Club.  https://youtu.be/amCP9zOifVE.  Please fee free to sing along!

June 14 is also flag day–show our colors.

Biological warfare has been a threat to mankind for almost a century.  Many have theorized about some country weaponizing Ebola. And several suspense novels have been written about super heroes stopping such attempts.

This morning on Maria Bartiromo’s Sunday Morning Futures show Senator Tom Cotton reported that the coronavirus did not start in Wuhan Animal Market, as originally reported.  The Daily Mail in the United Kingdom reported that the virus probably started in a government research facility that is 300 yards from the market.

These two reports contribute to the growing body of theories that the virus did not originate from a natural situation.  Was this a biological weapon gone astray?

Senator Tom Cotton told Maria: “Here is what we do know: This virus did not originate in the Wuhan animal market. Epidemiologists who are widely respected from China published a study in the international journal Lancet have demonstrated that several of the original cases did NOT have any contact with that food market. The virus went into that food market before it came out of that food market. So we don’t know where it originated… We also know that only a few miles away from that market is China’s only bio-safety Level Four Super Laboratory that researches human infectious diseases.

The Daily Mail report is based upon the same source as Senator Cotton’s.  It reports that Chinese scientists believe the deadly coronavirus may have started life in a research facility just 300 yards from the Wuhan fish market.  A new bombshell paper from the Beijing-sponsored South China University of Technology says that the Wuhan Center for Disease Control (WHCDC) could have spawned the contagion in Hubei province.

‘The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus,’ penned by scholars Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao claims the WHCDC kept disease-ridden animals in laboratories, including 605 bats.

It also mentions that bats – which are linked to coronavirus – once attacked a researcher and ‘blood of bat was on his skin.’  The report says: ‘Genome sequences from patients were 96% or 89% identical to the Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus originally found in Rhinolophus affinis (intermediate horseshoe bat).’

It describes how the only native bats are found around 600 miles away from the Wuhan seafood market and that the probability of bats flying from Yunnan and Zhejiang provinces was minimal.  In addition it is noted that there is little to suggest the local populace eat the bats as evidenced by testimonies of 31 residents and 28 visitors. Instead the authors point to research being carried out within a few hundred yards at the WHCDC.

It is now too late for a super hero to save the day. The super hero may turn out to be the weather.  Virus usually fade during spring and summer’s warmer weather.  Unfortunately not enough is known about the coronavirus to ascertain that it will suffer a similar fate.  Should the weather prevent a pandemic we can only hope that an immunization will be available before the virus emerges from weather induced hibernation.

Returning to the conspiracy theory, the publication of remarks coming out of the central Chinese leadership substantiates that the leadership was concerned about the contagion much earlier than previously reported.  This information is used to substantiate that the Chinese government knew that it had a problem on its hands earlier than previously reported.

One cannot imagine a better experiment than what is happening in Wuhan and the rest of the world.  Data will abound after this virus has been contained.  Data on how to spread the virus on one hand and how to contain it and treat it on the other.  This suggests that the next time the spread of the disease could be much quicker and more deadly.

We can only hope that China allows western researchers access to all of the data that the government must be gathering as it seeks to contain the virus.  So far the Chinese have denied western representatives of the Center for Disease Control and other such organizations access to the source of the virus. The amount of access in and of itself will go a long way to confirming or denying all conspiracy theories.