This is the third in the series about strategy and the current Middle East conflict.

The Biden administration has adopted a deterrence strategy in the Middle East based upon an expectation that the Israel-Hamas conflict will escalate.  The administration appears to have intelligence that the Iranian proxies (Hezbollah and either Iranians or Syrians operating from Syria) are prepared to expand the conflict. There is also newly arrived in the area a small flotilla of Chinese warships.

Hezbollah has been launching some rocket attacks into northern Israel. There have been several attacks coming out of Syria and even some cruise missiles from Yemen.  A US destroyer destroyed the cruise missiles while several attacks wounded one American in Syria.

The question is whether the deployments are too much or not enough for deterrence and if necessary for war fighting.  To date there have been two carrier battle groups and several squadrons of Air Force A-10s and support aircraft forward deployed.  Secretary of Defense Austin announced yesterday the deployment of PATRIOT and THAAD air defense systems to protect US Forces—locations not disclosed.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Sunday that the United States expects the Israel-Hamas war to escalate through involvement by proxies of Iran, and they asserted that the Biden administration is prepared to respond if American personnel or armed forces become the target of any such hostilities.

“This is not what we want, not what we’re looking for. We don’t want escalation,” Blinken said. “We don’t want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we’re ready for it.” Austin, echoed Blinken when he said “what we’re seeing is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region.”

Currently the Israelis have not asked for US intervention. Israeli warplanes struck targets across Gaza during the weekend, as well as two airports in Syria and a mosque in the occupied West Bank allegedly used by militants. Israel has also traded fire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group on a near-daily basis since the war began, and tensions are soaring in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where Israeli forces have battled militants in refugee camps and carried out two airstrikes in recent days.

In past conflicts Israel has fought on several fronts very successfully.  They apply economy of force to contain one or more threat while they eliminate the one that they see as most dangerous.  The ability to rapidly move troops from one side of the country to another (internal lines of communication) allows them to rapidly reposition forces.

One could easily conclude that Israel has not started its ground offensive into Gaza yet as it seeks to determine which threat is the most dangerous.  Once the Israeli ground forces enter Gaza it would be difficult to disengage to fight elsewhere.  Conversely, the other Iranian proxies may be waiting for Israel to commit its forces. In the meantime, Israel will continue to pound Gaza and elsewhere from the air and with artillery.  One should not expect this waiting game to continue ad infinitum. 

There is news reporting that the reason that Israel hasn’t attacked Gaza yet is because the Biden administration is seeking a hostage return in exchange for a ceasefire.  This is denied by some administration officials while quietly “sorta” suggested by others.  The administration is having difficulty talking with one voice.

In the near term the supplies reaching Gaza through Egypt will remain minimal, with pressure mounting for more aid to be allowed / provided. 

Another possible reason that Iran and others may be seeking to extend the conflict is because of the resource consumption rate.  At some point Israel is going to need ammunition and possibly other resources from the US.  At the same time Ukraine is rapidly consuming American resources.  Would the US have sufficient resources remaining to prevent China from attacking Taiwan?  OR would the US have to reduce support for Ukraine and thus facilitate Russian advances?  These are all questions worthy of consideration as one seeks to understanding seeking to deter rather than fight and why deterrence may be more difficult.

The threat of escalation is also suggested by the presence of 6 Chinese warships entering the area.  Engagements started by the Chinese would be an escalation of significant proportions. Should the US deterrence fail and its troops, ships or personnel be actively engaged this would/could be a game changer.  Biden has dug himself a hole and must either respond dramatically and thus widen the conflict he seeks to deter or slink back to his beach house.  The prospects for the future are thus more complicated.

Stand by for the next turn in events.  

Since writing the first piece on the Hamas strategy in its war of atrocities on Israel the picture has become much clearer.  The strategic goal of Hamas, based on their constitution is the destruction of Israel.  That goal has not changed!  What has changed is the methodologies of achieving that goal. The means used to achieve their goal include propaganda, rockets and terrorist activities.  The “Rules of War” do not apply.

Hamas (and Hezbollah?) continue to be Iranian proxies.  Iran has the elimination of Israel also as a goal, but probably for different reasons.  Iran seeks to dominate the middle-east.  To do that it must eliminate Israel.  After reducing the American threat by pretending that it would enter into an agreement to not produce nuclear weapons the US in exchange for 5 hostages released $6B.  (The call to refreeze those funds has so far fallen on deaf ears at the White House.)   The next step was to continue the antisemitic sentiments that had been fostered throughout the world using Muslim refugees and other pro-Arab thoughts in universities and colleges around the world funded by mostly Saudi money.  (Funny that the Sunni funds have been exploited by the Shiites.)  The Iranians also had to destroy or at least delay the approaching rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.  They knew that the Saudis could not side with Israel against the Palestinians.  This knowledge led to the current strategy of atrocities and hostages waged against the Israelis. The differences between the Sunni and Shia Muslims are hidden in the current propaganda war.

The hostages are a key component to the execution of the strategy.  Israel cannot attack the Hamas tunnel complexes using salt water to flood them as it has in the past because the tunnel might have hostages in it.  This has contributed to the lack of speed in the Israeli invasion of Gaza.  They are seeking to figure out where the hostages may be in order to attempt to minimize their vulnerability during the upcoming assault.

Tunnel warfare is dirty and dark work.  The easiest way to attack a tunnel is to flood it or fill it with some form of gas that either explodes, incapacitates or kills the tunnel occupants.  Ultimately the tunnels need to be destroyed.

The threats to open second and third fronts against Israel—Hezbollah on the north and Iran through Syria on the east are just threats to tie down Israeli forces and make the agony of Palestine continue to play in the media over a longer period of time.  Israel’s need to station troops to deal with those possible attacks means that those assets are not available to attack Gaza.  This agony it is hoped will further isolate Israel.  It almost appears that the pro-Palestinian factions around the world were expecting the hospital attack—the counter Israel demonstrations broke out so soon after the initial false claims by Hamas’s propaganda arm. Examination of the attack area and radar and video recordings prove that the missile was fired by Hamas.  The final number of casualties may be small, though quite a few cars next to the hospital were destroyed—burned not exploded.  But the propaganda value has been achieved.  Was it intentional?

The hospital attack also served to break up President Biden’s attempt to be a peacemaker by meeting in Jordan with three political heads of state.  The termination of this meeting may have contributed to the President’s stated goal of giving $100M to the Palestinian recovery fund.  This may be hard to get out of the Congress right now.

As this conflict continues to fester strategic goals and objectives may change with the tactical realities, but in the long run Iran will continue to seek dominance in the region and Israel will continue to seek to survive and prosper.

What is not known and may become the hugest sore for Israel is post-war Gaza.  Israel will not want to permanently occupy Gaza for a whole host of reasons–cost, providing targets for continuing terrorist attacks, the difficulty inherent in ruling a hostile area, etc.  To date there has been little discussion of what the region will look like in a post conflict world.  This should be a subject that is keeping Israeli strategists worrying once they can refocus away from the continual propaganda that flies at them every second of every day.  Food distribution and rebuilding requires a government in Gaza and it is hard to imagine that Israel wants that mission.

This series will continue as events dictate further explanations and revisions to the strategic environment.

As one ponders the intent behind Hamas’s unconstrained violence of the last five days true strategic understanding is difficult to achieve.  They jihadists have always acted in extremely passionate ways.  However, this time they seem to have exceeded their own bloody norm. Why?

Figuring out the beheadings and random killing of women and children is not easy.  The Palestine apologists all claim that every citizen of Israel is a colonist on their land.  Therefore, they must all be killed. The Palestinians / Hamas have been heavily armed by Iran and Afghanistan, among others, but they do not have the wherewithal to destroy Israel.  Attacking now may even set back their ability to attack again for years if not a decade.  At the rate of destruction that is occurring in Palestine there may only be rubble left in the Gaza strip.  A poverty ridden population which has seen much of the aid money poured into the country go for weapons of war, not for improving the lives of the people will again seek to kill the colonizer—Israelis.   Following this latest “war” the plight of the people most likely will be worse.  They have ignited a passion among the Israelis which had been becoming dormant. The reduction in fear led to the disarming of much of the population—that has been reversed. This Israeli passion will cause great destruction to Gaza which will take many years to rebuild.  Given the eventual embargoes that will most likely be imposed importing materials and goods and services will be more difficult.

It is in this passion—on both sides—that a possible understanding of what Hamas seeks to achieve emerges. Hamas and Iran see the US as weak and unwilling to or unable to respond resolutely.  The demonstrations and pronouncements from Liberals from Harvard undergraduates to Black Lives Matter may be fueling the Palestinian passion.  It is obvious that it is stirring Jewish sentiment in the western world.  Even President Biden, whose administration has been currying the Jewish vote while supporting the Palestinians has felt forced to speak out against the invasion.  However, once the conflict has ended you can expect millions of dollars to be poured back into Gaza because “it is the right thing to do.”

Hamas may have also seen a loss of passion in Gaza that was brought on by too much peace and even a gradual improvement in the standard of living.  To reignite the local population’s ardor in fighting the Israeli “colonists” it may have needed to return the situation to one of total deprivation.  I can remember Yassar Arafat saying that he did not want to get the Palestinians out of the camps because in the camps they were controlled and it was easy to ignite their passion.  We may be seeing this whole scenario playing out again. 

So how does this end?  Israel has absorbed significant damage, but nothing to compare to what has / will happened in Gaza.  Israeli unity of purpose will be the norm with political diversity set to the side for some time.  Gaza will be devastated and bleeding hearts will try to rebuild it and rearm Hamas, but it will take time for the images of decapitated babies to disappear.

The most optimistic outcome is that the Palestinians will decide that they have had enough of the agony brought on by fighting Israel and will opt for a more accommodating approach.  And of course, this will be the argument to open our borders and increase the national debt.  However, the Biden handling of the southern border may have so upset the American people that such an approach will not be possible.  The Israeli disarming will most likely set back liberal attempts to limit the applicability of the Second Amendment.

It is also interesting to note that some Wall Street firms are now refusing to hire Harvard graduates that support Hamas.  What does this say for the whole Diversity, Equity and Inclusion theology?  At this very early in the analysis process the one thing that we can conclude is that actions have consequences and sometimes (often?) the severity of the consequences are not very well thought out.